Ricky realizó video educativo sobre el coronavirus y le quedó hermoso

Es un catedrático, imagínese

El mejor gobernador que ha tenido Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rosselló Nevares, anda en la fiebre con esto del coronavirus. Luego de varios meses de inactividad en sus redes sociales, el hijo de Pedro Rosselló anda disparando a mansalva con sus análisis del coronavirus en lo que va de mes.

En esta ocasión, Ricky ofreció una revisión científica de siete pares en su cuenta de Facebook. Profundizó el fenómeno del COVID-19 y añadió conclusiones muy reveladoras. Utilizó herramientas fundamentales, como una pizarrita y marcadores de colores.

Nada, que esto es para educarse. También lo realizó en inglés, para beneficio de TODA la comunidad estadista. Un verdadero líder anexionista le habla a su gente en el idioma más bonito del mundo.


Coronavirus (nCOVID19): Potential pathways and waves to the viral spread:
(13 minute video)

Some worried and…

Posted by Ricardo Rossello on Monday, March 16, 2020

A continuación, compartimos el análisis profundo de Ricky, el grande:

Coronavirus (nCOVID19): Potential pathways and waves to the viral spread:
(13 minute video)

Some worried and concerned friends and colleagues at the state and federal level have messaged me to ask about the pandemic. As a scientist, I am addressing some of them in here. I’ve made a short (3m) and a longer (13m this one) video to discuss some of the realities we might be facing.

Overall conclusion:
1. Planning, anticipation and execution are critical to the success of reducing or eliminating the spread of nCOVID19 as there will be several . Policy makers need to understand that what you are experiencing today, is probably 14-20 days “delay-shifted”. This is due in part to lack of diagnostic tools, high incubation period, the absence of critical symptoms in many carriers of the virus. Anticipate what those numbers are likely to be, and start executing policy consistent with those projections. Do TODAY, what you think you will need in two to three weeks.

2. Patience will be key to defeating this, as it will likely take time.

3. Concentric circles of action are critical. This is truly a global unity effort. Starting from the individual (washing hands, self containment etc), community ( measures aimed at reducing opportunities for exposure, e.g., coordinated closures and dismissals of child care facilities and schools, local cleaning and cancelling mass gatherings), jurisdictions and states (policy, border control, human tracking, mass cleaning), global (data sharing, collaboration, resource sharing).

The video shows 3 to 4 potential phases.

Phase 1:Containment/Stopping the virus
Suggestion: For countries or jurisdictions in phase 1 starting implementing phase 2 considerations from the get go!

Phase 2: Inflection point
An inflection point occurs when a significant fraction of your population is infected. I would estimate this number to be 1-1.5%. By this moment in time, priorities change. You are no longer trying to stop or contain, you are in a position only to reduce the spread, and “flatten the curve

Phase 3: Post wave infection
Weeks after a successful flattening of the curve and reduction or containment of the virus, a secondary wave can arrive to infect those that were not infected in the first wave. Places with low infection rates in the first wave, are particularly susceptible to a second wave of infectivity.

Phase 4: Some other factors down the line
Seasonal virus? Vaccines ? Drug therapies?